Countries across the emerging and developing world face a defining challenge: how to expand energy access, power economic growth, and meet climate targets all at once. Nuclear power was once seen as a cornerstone of clean energy expansion, but as projects in high-income countries ran into major cost overruns and long construction timelines, it slipped off the development agenda.
Our analysis of eight emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) — Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Rwanda, and South Africa — shows that integrating nuclear power into clean energy transitions can reduce total system costs by 2-31% compared to renewable-only pathways.
By the Numbers
- 0%%
less solar capacity
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less energy storage
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less transmission infrastructure
This isn’t a marginal difference. It represents billions of dollars in avoided costs and faster pathways to energy abundance.
The Cost of Renewables-Only Systems
Solar and wind power have become remarkably affordable. But when renewables supply over 80% of electricity, systems must be massively overbuilt to ensure reliability during periods of low wind and sun — sharply driving up costs.
Analysis using detailed power system modelling from 2025 to 2050 shows that including nuclear capacity reduces the need to overbuild these expensive components, resulting in system cost reductions ranging from 2% in Brazil — which has substantial existing hydropower — to 31% in Rwanda, which has very limited renewable options beyond solar.
Nuclear as a Complement, Not a Competitor
The modelling reveals an important insight: nuclear and renewables work better together than either does alone. Across all scenarios where nuclear deployment was permitted, nuclear power accounted for 10-30% of generation by 2050 in cost-optimal pathways, while solar and wind continued to dominate the overall generation mix.
This complementarity stems from how different technologies meet different system needs. Solar provides cheap daytime power; wind adds variability and geographic diversity; and nuclear offers firm, dispatchable generation that reduces storage requirements and smooths daily dispatch patterns. We considered other baseload technologies like geothermal and hydropower, and found that nuclear works especially well in areas where these two are not geographically or geologically feasible. Together, they create more resilient systems than any single technology could provide.
When Ambition Scales, Nuclear's Value Grows Even More
The main analysis assumes countries reach at least a “Modern Energy Minimum” of 1,000 kilowatt-hours per person per year by 2050. But what happens when countries pursue genuine energy abundance to power large-scale industrialization?
A case study of Ghana illustrates nuclear’s role when ambitions scale dramatically. Rather than modest growth to the minimum threshold, this scenario models Ghana reaching 3,500 kWh per capita by 2050, which is comparable to India’s projected demand.
To meet this fourfold increase in demand with renewables alone, Ghana would need to build more than 300 gigawatts of generation capacity, 40 GW of storage, and 50 GW of transmission by 2050. The nuclear pathway delivers the same power requirements with a far smaller system: roughly 60 GW of generation, 10 GW of storage, and 30 GW of transmission.
The Ghana case reveals an important principle: nuclear’s value proposition strengthens as energy ambitions grow. For countries serious about rapid industrialization and moving up the value chain, firm low-carbon power isn’t just cost-effective, it may be essential to making the infrastructure buildout achievable at all, given land, finance, and supply chain constraints.
Benefits Beyond the Balance Sheet
Lower electricity costs matter enormously for development, but nuclear energy offers additional advantages that modelling alone cannot fully capture.
Nuclear plants create more numerous, higher-paid, and longer-lasting jobs than other clean energy technologies, with roughly half of coal plant jobs directly transferable to nuclear facilities. For countries like South Africa looking to transition away from coal, this represents a genuine pathway to a just transition that doesn’t abandon workers.
The Path Forward Isn't Without Obstacles
If nuclear power offers such clear benefits, why hasn’t deployment accelerated in EMDEs? The barriers are substantial and varied.
Expert interviews identified three critical challenges: government capacity and effectiveness, public engagement and acceptance, and nuclear project financing.
Nuclear power is particularly sensitive to the cost of capital due to long construction periods and high upfront costs relative to later operational expenses.
Yet recent experience shows these barriers can be overcome. Since 2000, eight countries have started to build or successfully built their first nuclear plants, with the UAE achieving 23% nuclear generation after 16 years. Each selected proven reactor designs, secured international partnerships for financing and expertise, and built government-led programs with sustained political support.
A Role for Catalytic Support
The most effective nuclear deployments will require support beyond what market forces or national governments can provide alone. This is where international cooperation and strategic philanthropy can play catalytic roles.
The need is urgent. While nuclear energy accounts for 20% of global clean electricity generation, it receives less than 0.2% of climate philanthropy, which is a striking imbalance given nuclear’s proven role in decarbonization.
Time to Act
The modelling makes clear that the cost savings from nuclear energy emerge primarily in the final phase of decarbonization (after 2040 in most modelled countries). But construction timelines mean that planning and building must begin decades earlier, well before market signals alone would trigger investment.
Countries don’t need to choose between economic growth and climate action, or between energy access and environmental protection. With the right technology mix, supportive policies, and strategic investment, emerging economies can achieve energy abundance while building cleaner, more resilient power systems.
The window for action is now. Every year of delay makes the final phase of decarbonization more expensive and more difficult. For countries serious about universal energy access and climate commitments, nuclear power deserves a prominent place in the conversation.
This analysis is based on research by Bayesian Energy in collaboration with Radiant Energy Group, commissioned by The Rockefeller Foundation. The study used detailed power system modeling to evaluate cost-optimal pathways for eight emerging market and developing economies through 2050.
