New ONE Data Analysis Supported by The Rockefeller Foundation Reveals Cost of Borrowing for African Countries Rose 91% Since 2020

Latest data from ONE Data’s Development Finance Observatory finds that:

• Cost of borrowing for African countries rose 91% between 2020 and 2024
• Cost of borrowing from the World Bank rose from 1.4% to 5.2% for the most credit-worthy countries
• China’s lending rates, long cited as an alternative to Western-dominated finance, have risen 3.2 percentage points — from an average of 2.5% for African countries in 2020 to 5.7% in 2024
• Countries in ‘squeezed middle’ — not poor enough to be fully insulated from global rate movements, nor wealthy enough to absorb them easily – have been hit the hardest

WASHINGTON, D.C. | April 14, 2026 — New research published today by ONE Data, with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, finds that the average cost of borrowing for African countries rose 91% from 2020 to 2024. During this time, disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were particularly damaging to African countries’ borrowing costs, which almost doubled during the five-year period as analyzed by ONE Data’s Development Finance Observatory. The cost of borrowing from the World Bank’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) was also up from 1.4% to 5.2%, while China’s lending rates for African countries rose on average from 2.5% in 2020 to 5.7% in 2024.

David McNair, Executive Director at ONE Data said: “The cost of borrowing for African countries rose 91% between 2020 and 2024. These high costs were already putting a significant squeeze on investments in human development as countries struggle to service expensive debt. Now with the Iran war threatening to increase energy and food prices significantly, the space countries have to weather this crisis is severely limited.”

The analysis, Priced Out: The rising cost of borrowing for low- and lower-middle-income countries, demonstrates that the scale of the increase in borrowing costs over such a short period is stark. The 2010s were an extraordinary period for borrowers: interest rates in advanced economies were near zero, and developing country governments could access finance at some of the lowest rates in decades. After 2020, this has reversed sharply. 

Snapshot of Key Findings (2020-2024):

• Africa’s borrowing costs surged 91%. It rose from 2.7% to 5.1% over five years.
• All financing sources became more expensive. World Bank IBRD rates rose 3.8 percentage points, a spike of more than 270% in five years. China’s lending rates rose by 3.2 percentage points to African countries, which is an increase of more than 125%. 
• Some countries were locked out entirely. Countries that could not issue bonds in 2022–2023 faced implied borrowing costs of 10.8% on average — some with rates nearly double that, and bond market borrowing costs for the most exposed countries peaked in 2023, pricing many out altogether.
• Multilateral lending still offers critical savings — but is scarce. Every $100 from the World Bank IBRD saved the most squeezed countries $22 compared with observed market rates, and $48 on average compared with implied market rates (for countries who couldn’t afford to issue bonds). When countries take market loans instead of WB loans, the cost is significant.

William Asiko, Senior Vice President and head of the Africa Regional Office at The Rockefeller Foundation, said: “When the cost of borrowing rises this fast, countries don’t just lose access to capital — they lose the ability to invest in their future. At the very moment when global shocks are intensifying — from conflict in places like Iran and Sudan to food and energy price spikes — many African countries are being squeezed out of the financing they need to protect lives and livelihoods. We need to ensure financing works for countries, not against them, so they can respond to crises and build long-term resilience.” 

In addition, countries in the ‘squeezed middle’ (such as Kenya and Ghana) have been hit particularly hard. These countries are too wealthy to access the lowest borrowing rates from World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), yet too poor to borrow at favorable rates on international bond markets and with bilateral lenders. The findings heighten fears that lower and middle income countries (LMICs) such as these are uniquely exposed to adverse economic shocks caused by the Iran crisis.

The paper is an early output from the Development Finance Observatory — a first-of-its-kind data platform launching later in 2026. Produced by ONE Data and funded by The Rockefeller Foundation, in association with its public charity, RFCC,  the Observatory is being built to give policymakers, investors, and citizens a single, coherent picture of global development finance flows. The paper calls for four urgent steps: 

1. Expand MDB lending and ensure that the non-concessional window delivers real value.
2. Align MDB lending with country needs.
3. Move faster on debt restructuring and create space to support countries with debt overhangs.
4. Protect IDA, given its status as the only consistently concessional source of finance.

Note

Cost of borrowing for African countries refers to public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt, from the creditors covered in the analysis – Paris Club lenders, China, World Bank and private bondholders.

About ONE Data

ONE Data is an initiative from the ONE Campaign that transforms fragmented, inaccessible development data into trusted, actionable insights for policymakers, campaigners, journalists, and citizens. For more information, sign up for our newsletter at https://substack.com/@insider.

About The Rockefeller Foundation

Investing $30 billion over the last 113 years to promote the well-being of humanity, The Rockefeller Foundation is a pioneering philanthropy built on unlikely partnerships and innovative solutions that deliver measurable results for people in the United States and around the world. We leverage scientific breakthroughs, artificial intelligence, and new technologies to make big bets across energy, food, health, and finance, including in affiliation with our public charity, RF Catalytic Capital (RFCC). For more information, sign up for our newsletter at www.rockefellerfoundation.org/subscribe and follow us on X @RockefellerFdn, Instagram @rockefellerfdn, YouTube @RockefellerFdn, and LinkedIn @the-rockefeller-foundation.