DengueAI: New Model That Anticipates Outbreaks With 93% Effectiveness and Three Weeks’ Advance Notice

•  The Rockefeller Foundation has supported Universidad Icesi to help reduce dengue incidence in the city. Both institutions now formalize a collaboration with the City of Cali to expand the impact, integrating this effort into a broader public health strategy.
• The Dengue.AI model, designed to benefit 2.2 million people in Cali, has demonstrated 93% effectiveness in predicting dengue outbreaks up to three weeks in advance.
• Anticipating and reducing dengue outbreaks enables more efficient use of public resources and targeted, data-driven action in neighborhoods most vulnerable to this mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti.

Cali, Colombia | May 4, 2026 — The City of Santiago de Cali, Universidad Icesi, and The Rockefeller Foundation today signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at reducing the incidence of dengue in the city and strengthening preparedness and response capacities for future epidemics. This collaboration grows out of The Rockefeller Foundation’s support for public health work and seeks to protect public health and advance sustainable solutions to one of the most significant public health challenges in both the department of Valle del Cauca and Colombia more broadly. The initiative, known as Dengue.AI (Dengue.IA in Spanish), brings together scientific expertise, technological development, and innovation through a cooperative model that integrates philanthropy, academia, and the public sector.

Dengue.AI is a software system that incorporates artificial intelligence models and it’s able to support Cali’s Public Health Secretariat in both the early prediction of dengue outbreaks and the delivery of actionable recommendations to guide response strategies. The system can anticipate outbreak risk up to three weeks in advance and recommend highly localized interventions — such as targeted fumigation, household visits, and storm drain cleaning — optimizing the use of public resources while enabling faster and more effective responses in highly vulnerable neighborhoods.

The project demonstrates the impact that strategic collaboration between philanthropy, academia, and government can have in advancing innovation in public health. The MOU builds on initial work announced in July 2025, through which The Rockefeller Foundation supported the development of the predictive and prescriptive models created by Universidad Icesi. These models have already demonstrated high reliability in forecasting dengue outbreaks with 93% effectiveness, and now Cali’s Public Health Secretariat will lead their implementation and operational use to inform strategic decision-making that protects the health of Cali’s residents.

“We firmly believe that innovation and coordination are essential to meeting the public health challenges of the 21st century. This collaboration with a public entity in Colombia, shows how cooperation can protect people’s health, and how artificial intelligence can be a tool for progress, equity, and safety,” said Lyana Latorre, Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean at The Rockefeller Foundation.

“Collaborative initiatives such as Dengue.AI align complementary capacities across philanthropy, academia, and the public sector, accelerating territorial transformation processes and improving the quality of life for citizens,” said Esteban Piedrahita, President of Universidad Icesi.

Dengue.AI analyzes data from 174 sub-municipal units (1 km² areas specifically defined for this model), covering a population of approximately 2.2 million people, representing a significant advancement in the precision of epidemiological surveillance in Cali. During a three-month validation period, multidisciplinary experts from Universidad Icesi and the Public Health Secretariat reviewed 91 priority zones across the city and confirmed that the system accurately identifies increased dengue risk in more than 90% of cases, reinforcing its value as an early warning tool.

Although this strategy begins in Cali, its lessons learned, results, and capabilities will lay the groundwork for replicating the model in other cities across the country, demonstrating that innovation developed locally can be scaled nationally and internationally, thereby contributing to the health and well-being of many more people.

“This is a great honor for Cali that puts us at the forefront of the use of artificial intelligence to protect citizens’ health, especially because it will help build capabilities both within the mayor’s office and in academia,” said Cali Mayor Alejandro Eder.

In 2024, Cali recorded 1,520 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, significantly exceeding the national average of 937 cases per 100,000, underscoring the urgent need to continue advancing anticipatory, data-driven, and evidence-based public health strategies.

This technological innovation initiative is supported by a broad network of partners, including Universidad del Valle, which contributes scientific validation and epidemiological analysis; multiple departments of the City of Santiago de Cali, including the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DATIC), responsible for providing georeferenced city data and ensuring technological integration within district infrastructure; the Secretariat of Economic Development, which promotes the initiative as a driver of innovation, technology, and competitiveness; the Department of Environmental Management (DAGMA), which supplies climate data through its meteorological stations; the Office of Relations and Cooperation, which led stakeholder engagement and facilitated the partnerships that made the project possible; and Cubo Social, the external partner responsible for Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL), ensuring rigorous measurement of impact and effectiveness across the territory.

About The Rockefeller Foundation

Investing $30 billion over the last 113 years to promote the well-being of humanity, The Rockefeller Foundation is a pioneering philanthropy built on unlikely partnerships and innovative solutions that deliver measurable results for people in the United States and around the world. We leverage scientific breakthroughs, artificial intelligence, and new technologies to make big bets across energy, food, health, and finance, including with our public charity, RF Catalytic Capital (RFCC). For more information, sign up for our newsletter at www.rockefellerfoundation.org/subscribe and follow us on X @RockefellerFdn, Instagram @rockefellerfdn, YouTube @RockefellerFdn, and LinkedIn .